2025 ends with many positive signals for Vietnam’s seafood industry, with shrimp continuing to affirm its role as a key export item. According to data from the Customs Department, as of December 15, 2025, seafood export turnover reached 10.7 billion USD, up 12% year on year.
On that basis, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) forecasts that the industry’s total export turnover in 2025 could reach a record 11.2–11.3 billion USD. In particular, the shrimp sector is expected to surpass 4.6 billion USD, the highest level ever, creating an important foundation for growth prospects in 2026.
EXPORT MARKETS: OPPORTUNITIES COME WITH STRINGENT REQUIREMENTS
In terms of markets, China remains the largest destination for Vietnamese seafood, with turnover reaching 2.07 billion USD in the first 11 months of 2025, up sharply by 31.9% year on year. The US and Japan ranked second and third, respectively, with turnover of 1.78 billion USD and 1.55 billion USD.
These are also key shrimp-consuming markets, while placing increasingly high demands on product quality, food safety, and traceability — crucial factors determining the competitiveness of Vietnamese enterprises in the coming period.
DRIVERS BOOSTING SHRIMP EXPORTS
According to VASEP, there are three main factors driving Vietnam’s shrimp exports. First, global economic and geopolitical instability is encouraging food stockpiling, thereby increasing demand for seafood imports, including shrimp.
Second, Vietnamese shrimp companies are becoming increasingly proactive in adjusting market strategies, delivery plans, and product structures to adapt to trade barriers, especially US tariffs and import regulations.
Third, the advantages from free trade agreements (FTAs) continue to support Vietnamese shrimp in expanding market share in markets such as the EU, CPTPP, and RCEP, contributing to export market diversification.
CHALLENGES AHEAD IN 2026
Entering 2026, Vietnam’s shrimp industry will still face many notable challenges. Among them, the 19th anti-dumping duty review (POR19) by the US is seen as a major risk factor. In an unfavorable scenario, if the 35% tariff continues to be maintained, the competitiveness of Vietnamese shrimp in the US market will decline, forcing businesses to shift orders to other markets.
In addition, Vietnam’s shrimp production costs are still higher than those of competing countries such as Ecuador, India, and Indonesia, due to lower farming success rates and high input costs. Therefore, Vietnamese shrimp is mainly focused on markets that accept higher prices in exchange for quality and stable supply, such as the US, Japan, South Korea, and the EU. However, these are also markets that are increasingly tightening standards on labor, the environment, and supply chain transparency.
POSITIVE SIGNALS FROM LOGISTICS COSTS
On the other hand, according to Agriseco, sea freight rates are forecast to continue declining in 2026 thanks to increased vessel supply. This development is expected to help improve profit margins for shrimp exporters, especially as production costs remain under considerable pressure.
A PATH TOWARD SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
Overall, the outlook for Vietnam’s shrimp industry in 2026 is a mix of opportunities and challenges. To maintain growth momentum and enhance competitiveness, the industry needs to focus on improving farming efficiency, controlling and reducing production costs, promoting deep processing, and developing in a sustainable direction. This will be an important foundation for helping Vietnam’s shrimp industry strengthen its position in the international market in the coming period.
C.A
Source: Nguoinuoitom.vn
